AN ECONOMETRIC ASSESSMENT AND FORECASTING OF FISH PRODUCTION AND MARINE PRODUCT EXPORTS IN INDIA: EVIDENCE FROM 2000 01 TO 2024–25

Abstract

The study analysed the growth, instability, correlation, composition,
and future outlook of fish production and marine product exports in India from
2000–01 to 2024–25. Secondary data were obtained from the Handbook of
Fisheries Statistics and the Marine Products Export Development Authority
(MPEDA). Linear trend, Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR),
coefficient of variation, Cuddy–Della Valle Instability Index, Pearson's
correlation, regression analysis, and ARIMA forecasting were utilized. The
findings indicated positive and statistically significant trends in marine, inland,
and total fish production, with inland fish production achieving the highest
growth rate of 7.3 percent. Marine product exports experienced significant
growth, with export quantity and value increasing by 6.63 percent and 12.60
percent, respectively. The value of exports demonstrated greater instability
compared to the quantity of exports.
A strong positive association was observed between fish production
and marine product export value. Frozen shrimp continued to be the dominant
export product, with the USA and Southeast Asia becoming significant export
destinations. ARIMA forecasts indicated an overall positive outlook for fish
production and marine product exports from 2025–26 to 2029–30. The study
emphasized the significance of sustainable production, diversification of
exports, value addition, development of infrastructure, and market expansion
to fortify India's fisheries sector.